Epstein mentioned that one must accept 'The Normal Condition" as background for any discussion of cause and effect. Otherwise, it's difficult to tell how far back to go. This is something I haven't considered before. Most often, I'm after root cause. You see the effect, an injury. Why did it happen? Trace that back far enough and you can do a lot of prevention.
Why was the Kingdom lost?
For want of a nail the shoe was lost.
For want of a shoe the horse was lost.
For want of a horse the rider was lost.
For want of a rider the battle was lost.
For want of a battle the kingdom was lost.
And all for the want of a horseshoe nail.(Gower, 1390)
So the next question is Why was there Want of a Nail? Where to stop is a judgement call. How far back is reasonable? Epstein says "For a causal claim, the normal conditions are the obvious and plausible unstated claims that are needed to establish that the relationship between purported cause and purported effect is valid and strong." Is this string of circumstance strong and valid enough to say the country was lost because of lack of a nail? Probably not. Starting with the rider, he might well have been able to find another horse or another means of transport. One the other hand, how much effect can one sholdier have? Maybe we can't go any further back than the battle....
"The earliest known written version of the rhyme is in John Gower's " Confesio Amantis dated approximately 1390" http://www.rhymes.org.uk/for_want_of_a_nail.htm
Hi,
ReplyDeleteI really liked your blog. It went deeper than most of the blogs I have read and it was very interesting the way you explained everything in a methodical manner. You are correct in saying that tracing back far enough can "do a lot of prevention." And knowing when to stop can be tricky. Accepting the "normal condition" as the "background" for any cause and effect claim, is very important so you don't have to go on and on and on forever.
Was a country lost because of a nail? Don't think so, but it was a fun way to see your point. Very good idea. You were thinking outside of the box!
Hey, I did really understand this subject that well and you did a really great job on answering the question. I liked how you gave a URL to the earliest known version. It was nice to take a look at it. The Kingdom of Lost seem a bit confusing at times and was definately a tricky part in the book. Like Babbie said we need to accept the normal conditions and find out the cause and effects or it could just go on forever.
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